By Debra Benveniste

Despite the record-breaking cold of this year’s winter, Maine, like much of the northeast, is warming faster than the global average.[1] Over the years spanning 1901-2000, coastal Maine’s air temperature climbed an average of 3.2 degrees and the Gulf of Maine’s water temperature increased by an average of 3.8 degrees. This trend has accelerated over the past 10 years as this decade has been the hottest on record.[2] Since Harpswell has the largest coastline of any Maine town or city, we are affected by both the air and water temperature changes more so than many other areas.

Impacts on the Winter Season

Dr. Sean Birkel, Ph.D., Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Maine and Maine State Climatologist, stated that since the beginning of this century, Maine winters have shown distinct changes from their earlier counterparts. Winters are warmer and the season is 1-2 weeks shorter with later winter onset. There is less consistent snowfall and an “unreliable snow pack.”

And then there are the storms. Typically, Maine winters are associated with Nor’easter-fueled snowstorms but Dr. Birkel described that the past 10 years has brought the advent of the Southeaster, a storm which is driven by southeasterly winds. To use the technical term for these storms, these “extra-tropical cyclones” tend to be more intense with stronger winds and heavier precipitation. Impacts include significant coastal erosion, sea level rise, inland flooding and infrastructure damage. Additionally, the minimal snowpack provides poor support for trees during massive wind events. They topple more often which increases the risk of major power outages and damage to buildings, vehicles and roads.

This is the type of storm that pounded Harpswell’s coast twice within days of each other in January 2024. Seasonal high tides, heavy rain and winds occurred all at once[3] which damaged roads and destroyed docks, historic fish houses and oceanfront homes.[4]

Another effect of warmer winters is the growth of deer populations. More deer mean more collisions with vehicles.[5]

One long term Harpswell resident can attest to the changes in the quality of Maine’s winters over time. Regina Schaare-Denio moved to Maine to attend the University of Maine at Orono in 1966. At the time, her grandmother gave her a muskrat coat which helped her adjust to the frigid temperatures. She said she would be unable to wear it now as it would keep her far too warm. The facet of warmer winters most vexing for Ms. Schaare-Denio is that what was once snow is now often freezing rain or sleet, making getting around much more difficult.

Future Winter Seasons

Dr. Birkel expects that winters could warm an additional 2-4 degrees F by 2050. These temperatures are expected to increase storm intensity and precipitation amounts but questions remain about the frequency, direction (nor’easter vs southeaster) and wind speeds of these future storms.[6] Based on this assessment, it would appear that continuing temperature increases will produce long-term uncertainty.

Preparedness Strategies

Mainers know how to prepare for an average winter season. But what is to be done about the type of temperature shifts and severity of storms coming our way?

There are certainly protective measures individual homeowners and landlords can take to prepare properties and vehicles but much of the intervention must happen at municipal, state and federal levels. Dr. Austin Becker, professor and chair of Marine Affairs at the University of Rhode Island, explains that “what really matters when a storm hits is not the flooding or wind itself, but rather the resulting damage. Emergency managers need to know what kinds of things lie in harm’s way ahead of a storm’s landfall — things like roads, backup generators, electrical transformers and HVAC systems.”[7]

Evaluating damage and debris removal can occur at the individual and municipal level. Longer-term issues including infrastructure repair, economic recovery, coastal resilience, and emergency preparedness need to happen at the state level. State intervention occurred quickly after the 2024 storms with the passage of L.D. 1864, a law which allows working waterfront property owners to bypass some zoning rules to facilitate rebuilding.[8] State and municipal emergency preparedness staff must coordinate their efforts. And the Federal government can issue a disaster declaration, freeing up funds to assist repair.

The cold and snowy winters of Maine’s past will be fondly remembered by many. Future winters will bring new challenges requiring creative assessment, planning and intervention. Our communities will need to come together more than ever so that enjoying the season will also include taking care of ourselves and each other as we face what comes.

[1] Maine Climate Science Dashboard

[2] 10 Years After a Breakthrough Climate Pact, Here’s Where We Are – The New York Times

[3] Maine’s Devastating Winter Storms

[4] The New Normal?

[5] Motorist collisions with deer on the rise in Harpswell – The Harpswell Anchor

[6] MCC STS. 2024. Scientific Assessment of Climate Change and Its Effects in Maine – 2024 Update. A Report by the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee (STS) of the Maine Climate Council (MCC). Augusta, Maine. 268 pp.

[7]  He Helped Cities Anticipate Damage From Storms – The New York Times

[8] Harpswell-led law to ease coastal recovery from 2024 storms enacted – The Harpswell Anchor